Independent equity research · Nigerian Exchange & US markets

What is that stock actually worth?

Aruan reads a company's own filings, builds the valuation an analyst would build, and gives you a number, plus the reasoning behind it, and an AI analyst you can question line by line.

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NYSE & NASDAQ
any listed name, on demand
115
NGX names, in beta
Every assumption
shown, and editable
Ticker Verdict Upside
NVDANVIDIA Corp · NASDAQ Bullish +18.40%
DANGCEM.LGDangote Cement · NGX Bullish +22.70%
MSFTMicrosoft Corp · NASDAQ Neutral +4.10%
MTNN.LGMTN Nigeria · NGX Bearish (12.30%)
GTCO.LGGuaranty Trust · NGX Bullish +16.20%

Five of today's live verdicts. Upside is our valuation against the last traded price, not a price target, and not advice.

Why Aruan exists

Nigerian investors have data. Nobody was doing the analysis.

Buy Apple and a hundred analysts have already published on it before you click. Buy Dangote Cement or GTCO and you get a price, a chart, and a press release. The numbers exist, quarter after quarter. Nobody turns them into a valuation.

So millions of Nigerians now hold shares they cannot value. Not because the work is impossible, but because no one was doing it for this market.

Aruan does what a research desk does. It reads the financials, builds the model, and writes the thesis, for the Nigerian Exchange first and for US markets too.

News
tells you what happened.
Charts
tell you what the price did.
Research
tells you what the business is worth.

How the number is built

What goes into the model

We open the company’s books and work out how much cash the business will actually produce, then discount it back to what that stream is worth today.

Each valuation begins with five years of primary statements: income, balance sheet, cash flow. We derive free cash flow to the firm, discount it at a weighted average cost of capital from an adjustable beta and risk-free rate, and close with a Gordon terminal value.

Statements  5-year
Cash flow   FCFF
Discount    WACC
Terminal    Gordon

How the AI is grounded

The AI never reads headlines, press releases, or our own marketing. It only sees the numbers the model produced, and every claim it makes has to point back to one of them.

It receives the raw quantitative output (margins, growth decay, solvency ratios) and is held to a fixed contract: a bull case, a bear case, a sentiment read, and a risk grade, each tied back to a figure in the model. Ask the conversational analyst anything and it answers from those figures, or tells you the number is not there.

ROE      31.4%   (FY25)
Net mgn  55.8%   (TTM)
Net debt (12.4B)  (MRQ)
Int cov  42.1x   (TTM)

What we cover

US large and mid-caps run live. Nigerian names are modelled in naira and the coverage is still in beta.

US large- and mid-cap equities run through FMP with a yfinance fallback. Nigerian Exchange names are modelled in naira. ETFs use a look-through approach. Where a name is not yet modelled, we say so rather than guess.

Global stocks   Live
NGX stocks      Beta
Global ETFs     Q2 2026
NGX ETFs        Q3 2026
+− The three formulas, in plain English Hide the formulas You do not need these to read a valuation.
WACC = E/V·Rₑ + D/V·R_d·(1−t)

The annual return the business must beat: shareholders' expected return and after-tax debt cost, weighted by each one's share of funding.

Rₑ = Rf + β·(Rm − Rf)

Shareholders' expected return: a risk-free baseline plus extra for how much the stock swings with the market.

TV = FCFFₙ·(1+g) / (WACC − g)

The value of all cash flows past the final forecast year, growing at a small, steady rate forever.

where: E, D = market value of equity and debt; V = E + D; Rₑ, R_d = cost of equity and debt; t = tax rate; Rf = risk-free rate; β = the stock's sensitivity to the market; Rm = expected market return; FCFFₙ = the final forecast year's free cash flow; g = long-run growth rate.

If you have never seen these before, you do not need to. They run underneath every valuation on this site. We publish them so you can check our work, not so you have to do it.

Sample investment memo

A memo is the written verdict: what we think a company is worth, and the argument for why.

NVIDIA: paying up for the only toll road on the AI highway

Aruan Research · Initiation · Bullish

We initiate with a Bullish view and an intrinsic value of $168.30, roughly 18% above the last close. The thesis is not that the company is cheap (on any backward-looking multiple it is not), but that the market underwrites the duration of data-center demand too conservatively.

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Aruan Research Bullish
NVIDIA Corp: Initiation
Intrinsic value
$168.30USD
Last price
$142.10USD
Upside
+18.40%

Our base case runs a five-year explicit window at a 9.25% WACC and 3.0% terminal growth, decaying revenue growth into the low-teens by 2030 and holding gross margin flat rather than extrapolating recent peaks.

Coverage

Where a name is not yet modelled we publish the date we expect it, not a placeholder valuation.

NGX coverage is the hard part, and we are building it name by name: 115 companies modelled so far, with more each month. If a company is not listed here, we have not modelled it, and we would rather tell you that than generate a number we cannot defend.

Segment Names Status
Global Stocks On demand Live
NGX Stocks 115 Beta
Global ETFs 12 Q2
NGX ETFs — Q3

Pick one company you already own. See what it is worth.

That is the whole first step. One ticker, and you get the valuation, the bull case, the bear case, and an analyst you can argue with.

Run a valuation for free

Free to start, with two full memos included. We do not sell your data. And we never tell you to buy or sell anything. We tell you what the numbers say, and you decide.